The End of the “Century of Humiliation”
In 1904, The Judge magazine published a cartoon entitled “The New Square-Deal Deck,” in which Theodore Roosevelt says, “Come, gentlemen; it's time to put that worn card game aside and try one that gives you both a fair chance.” The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 was extended repeatedly, causing anger among the Chinese government and among Chinese people abroad. The drawing shows how a Chinese guy and Uncle Sam take turns playing their political cards — neither party is willing to give in.
This past week, all the attention has focused where Trump likes it: on Trump. The rates flew from top to bottom. The general discourse diminished somewhat yesterday, resulting in a small rally. However, on Chinese imports to the US, they will soon rise to 125%. Not just on electric cars, but on just about everything. From steel to batteries, from industrial machines to children's toys. As if Chinese economic progress is a form of aggression against the US.
Just like we look back on the Belle Epoque, China in its modern history looks back on the “Century of Humiliation”. China does not remember the humiliation from 1839 to 1949 as a past, but as a raison d'être. What we regard as a historical chapter — the opium wars, treaty ports, foreign occupations — is the foundation of a national narrative for China. It's extensively in textbooks, as well as in movies and popular culture. The century in which the “Middle Kingdom”, which saw itself as the center of civilization, was broken open, plundered and kept small by foreign powers.
Since then, everything has been in function of recovery.
Not just the restoration of power, but of dignity.
China has built the economy that the US wants so much under Trump: hyper-competitive, extremely efficient, strategically planned. With millions of small businesses, lower government spending than the US, a dominant manufacturing industry, and a population that works hard, protests little and digitizes everything.
Ironically, China also has the political system that some US leaders seem to envy: a central figure who controls the judiciary, controls the media, marginalizes the opposition, and can “put things in order” without much obstruction.
Trump wanted to make America “great,” but China is all there — although in their own way.
The tariffs on China are not an expression of U.S. dominance. They are a form of American panic. They're not coming because China is lagging behind, but precisely because it is ahead. In industrial capacity, in exports, in infrastructure, in technology. Today, China sets the price of batteries, the standards for EVs, the capacity of steel, the global flow of rare earth metals.
The US is responding defensively. With laws and rates. Not to overtake China, not by taking up the challenge, but by complaining about the unfair world and by fencing itself off.
And Xi? He won't give in. Not because he is inflexible, but because giving in feels like returning to 1842, which is unthinkable.
We may have to accept that the “Century of Humiliation” did not end in 1949, with the creation of the People's Republic. But only now — with the undeniable proof that China no longer has to prove itself.
The world order didn't change with a bang. She changed with a 125% tariff increase, a deep-seek moment, and a Chinese leader who no longer has to listen to the West.
Will the U.S. win this trade war? Since 1978, China has been playing a long-term game based on planning, strategy and sustained commitment. Today, it is reaping the benefits of forty years of thoughtful and consistent policy. The only one who doesn't realize that the US needs China more than China needs the US is Trump and his administration.
Author: Wouter Verlinden
